A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
